In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, sparking the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. As the conflict persists, casualties rise, and the humanitarian crisis worsens, the future remains uncertain.
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How might the situation develop? Is a diplomatic resolution feasible? And if so, what could the potential implications be? Additionally, how can the West continue to hold Putin accountable while managing the risks of a broader conflict between Russia and NATO?
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An extensive collection of prior RAND research and analysis can provide valuable insights into these pressing questions and more. Moreover, numerous RAND experts are offering timely perspectives that could aid in shaping policy responses to Russia’s ongoing war.
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Civilian-based resistance in Ukraine emerged immediately after Russia’s invasion in 2022. The actions of civilians hold the potential to play a crucial role in achieving victory, including the restoration of territorial integrity and the preservation of political sovereignty. This conflict offers valuable insights into the possible forms of civilian involvement in future wars.
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Ukrainians possess an ultimate form of leverage, rooted in the credible threat that they will persist in their resistance indefinitely, even if Russia were to successfully overrun the entire country. If there is any advantage for Ukrainians at the moment, it lies in the ongoing conflict’s ability to offer constant visual evidence of their heroic defense and Russia’s ruthless actions. This, in turn, garners public sympathy in the West.
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While EU countries, communities, and citizens have displayed remarkable hospitality towards Ukrainian refugees, it is insufficient to consider them as temporary guests, merely meeting their immediate humanitarian requirements, and allowing them to endure the conflict. By providing education and employment opportunities to Ukrainian refugees, EU countries can not only enhance their own communities but also provide substantial support to Ukraine.
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Rather than implementing policies built on the erroneous assumption that refugees merely require short-term humanitarian solutions until they can return to their homeland, EU countries should formulate policies that offer Ukrainian refugees a degree of medium-term stability and concurrently support the communities hosting them.
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The underlying factors fueling the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine have the potential to result in a protracted conflict, leading to significant human suffering, economic adversity, and international instability. It is imperative for the United States and its allies to initiate efforts to guide the conflict towards a resolution.
